The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted a global sea level rise of about one metre by AD 2100. What would be its impact in India and the other countries in the Indian Ocean region?

Introduction

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its Sixth Assessment Report, has projected a global sea level rise of approximately one metre by 2100 under high-emission scenarios. This alarming trend is primarily driven by thermal expansion of oceans, melting glaciers, and polar ice caps. For India and the Indian Ocean region, this poses significant challenges, given the region's dense coastal populations, economic dependence on coastal resources, and vulnerability to extreme weather events.

Key Impacts of Sea Level Rise in India and the Indian Ocean Region

1. Impact on Coastal Communities

• Displacement and Migration: Rising sea levels could submerge low-lying areas like the Sundarbans, Mumbai, and Chennai, displacing millions of people. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) estimates that India already faces 2.5–3 million displacements annually due to climate-related disasters.
• Loss of Livelihoods: Coastal communities dependent on fishing, aquaculture, and tourism will face economic hardships due to habitat loss and declining fish stocks.

2. Threat to Infrastructure and Urban Areas

• Submergence of Cities: Major cities like Kolkata, Kochi, and Visakhapatnam are at risk of partial submergence, leading to loss of infrastructure worth billions.
• Damage to Ports: Key ports in the Indian Ocean region, such as Chennai Port and Colombo Port, may face operational disruptions, affecting global trade.

3. Loss of Biodiversity and Ecosystems

• Mangroves and Coral Reefs: Rising sea levels threaten ecosystems like the Sundarbans mangroves and coral reefs in the Maldives, which act as natural barriers against storm surges.
• Marine Biodiversity: Changes in salinity and temperature could disrupt marine ecosystems, affecting species like tuna and mackerel, which are vital for regional fisheries.

4. Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events

• Storm Surges and Cyclones: Rising sea levels amplify the impact of cyclones, as seen during Cyclone Amphan (2020), which caused $13 billion in damages in India and Bangladesh.
• Flooding and Erosion: Coastal erosion in states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu is expected to worsen, threatening agricultural lands and settlements.

5. Geopolitical and Security Implications

• Climate Refugees: Countries like the Maldives and Bangladesh face existential threats, potentially leading to cross-border migration and regional instability.
• Resource Conflicts: Competition over shrinking coastal resources, such as fisheries, could exacerbate tensions among Indian Ocean nations.

6. Economic Consequences

• Tourism Losses: Popular tourist destinations like the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Maldives, and Sri Lanka may lose their appeal due to submergence and ecosystem degradation.
• Agricultural Impact: Saltwater intrusion into coastal farmlands, especially in West Bengal and Odisha, could reduce agricultural productivity.

Value Addition Block — Vulnerable Areas in the Indian Ocean Region

Way Forward

1. Strengthening Coastal Resilience

• Mangrove Restoration: Expand mangrove cover in vulnerable areas like the Sundarbans to act as natural buffers.
• Coastal Infrastructure: Build sea walls, dykes, and elevated structures in high-risk zones.

2. Policy and Governance

• Climate Adaptation Plans: Implement National Action Plans on Climate Change (NAPCC) and state-level action plans with a focus on coastal resilience.
• Regional Cooperation: Foster collaboration among Indian Ocean nations through platforms like IORA (Indian Ocean Rim Association) for joint disaster management and resource sharing.

3. Community-Based Adaptation

• Relocation and Rehabilitation: Develop policies for planned relocation of vulnerable communities.
• Skill Development: Train coastal populations in alternative livelihoods like eco-tourism and aquaculture.

4. Global Climate Action

• Emission Reductions: Advocate for stronger global commitments to limit warming to 1.5°C, as per the Paris Agreement.
• Climate Financing: Secure funding from mechanisms like the Green Climate Fund to support adaptation measures.

Conclusion

The projected one-metre sea level rise by 2100 poses a grave threat to India and the Indian Ocean region, impacting millions of lives, ecosystems, and economies. Addressing this challenge requires a multi-pronged approach involving local adaptation measures, regional cooperation, and global climate action. By prioritizing resilience and sustainability, the region can mitigate the worst impacts and safeguard its future.