A number of outside powers have entrenched themselves in Central Asia, which is a zone of interest to India. Discuss the implications, in this context, of India's joining the Ashgabat Agreement, 2018.

Introduction

Central Asia, often referred to as the "heart of Asia," is a region of immense geostrategic importance due to its location at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. The Ashgabat Agreement (2018), a multimodal transport agreement aimed at enhancing connectivity between Central Asia and the Persian Gulf, offers India an opportunity to strengthen its presence in this region. India's accession to the agreement aligns with its Connect Central Asia Policy and broader strategic interests.

Value Addition Block — Key Features of the Ashgabat Agreement

Key Features of the Ashgabat Agreement:

• Objective: Establish an international transport and transit corridor linking Central Asia with the Persian Gulf.
• Members: Turkmenistan, Iran, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Oman, and India (joined in 2018).
• Modalities: Multimodal transport (road, rail, and sea) to facilitate trade and economic integration.

Implications of India's Joining the Ashgabat Agreement

1. Enhanced Connectivity with Central Asia

• Strategic Access: The agreement provides India with a direct transport corridor to Central Asia via Iran, bypassing Pakistan.
• Chabahar Port Linkage: India's investment in Iran's Chabahar Port complements the Ashgabat Agreement, enabling seamless connectivity to Central Asia.
• Economic Integration: Facilitates trade in energy, minerals, and agricultural products, boosting India's economic ties with the region.

2. Countering China's Influence

• Balancing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): China's growing influence in Central Asia through the BRI poses a challenge to India's strategic interests. The Ashgabat Agreement offers India an alternative route to engage with the region.
• Strategic Autonomy: Strengthens India's ability to independently access Central Asia without relying on Chinese-dominated corridors.

3. Energy Security

• Access to Energy Resources: Central Asia is rich in hydrocarbons, particularly natural gas (e.g., Turkmenistan's Galkynysh field). The agreement facilitates India's access to these resources, diversifying its energy imports.
• Reduced Dependence: Helps India reduce its reliance on traditional energy suppliers like the Middle East.

4. Geopolitical Leverage

• Strengthening Regional Presence: By joining the agreement, India signals its commitment to being a key player in Central Asia, countering the influence of powers like Russia, China, and the USA.
• Soft Power Diplomacy: Enhances India's cultural and historical ties with Central Asia, leveraging its shared heritage and goodwill.

5. Challenges and Limitations

• Geopolitical Instability: The region is prone to political volatility, particularly in Afghanistan, which could disrupt connectivity projects.
• Pakistan's Role: Pakistan's participation in the agreement may pose hurdles for India's seamless access to Central Asia.
• Infrastructure Gaps: The lack of robust infrastructure in the region could limit the agreement's full potential.

Way Forward

• Strengthening Chabahar Port: Accelerate the development of Chabahar Port to ensure a reliable gateway to Central Asia.
• Collaborative Engagement: Work with regional players like Iran, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan to address infrastructure and security challenges.
• Leveraging Multilateral Platforms: Use platforms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to deepen India's engagement with Central Asia.
• Energy Partnerships: Negotiate long-term energy agreements with Central Asian countries to secure India's energy needs.

Conclusion

India's accession to the Ashgabat Agreement is a strategic step towards enhancing its connectivity with Central Asia, diversifying its energy sources, and countering China's growing influence in the region. By leveraging this agreement, India can strengthen its geopolitical and economic footprint in a region that is vital to its long-term strategic interests. This aligns with India's vision of becoming a net security provider in the region and fostering greater regional integration.